The Bull Ring

POLL: Opportunity Party Crosses MMP Threshold Amid Luxon Leadership Crisis 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴𝘵 1𝘕𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘝𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘭 (8–11 𝘈𝘶𝘨𝘶𝘴𝘵) 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘸𝘴 𝘓𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘯 30% (𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 2), 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 𝘢𝘵 29%, 𝘎𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘯𝘴 12%, 𝘈𝘊𝘛 𝘶𝘱 𝘵𝘰 9%, 𝘖𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 3 𝘱𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘰 8%, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘕𝘡 𝘍𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘥𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘨 3 𝘱𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘰 8%. Analysis: Bruce Alpine. T he latest 1News Verian poll (fielded 8–11 August 2026, sample 847, margin of error ±3.4%) delivers a clear verdict on the National-led government’s fragility and the collapse of traditional two-party dominance.  Labour sits on 30% (down 2 points from June), National holds steady at 29%, the Greens fall to 12%, ACT rises sharply to 9%, NZ First drops 3 points to 8%, Opportunity surges 3 points to 8% (clearing the threshold for the first time in a 1News Verian poll), and Te Pāti Māori sits at 1%. Party standings. file Projected seats in a 125-member House (assu...

Luxon’s ‘Surprise’ on MMP Was 30 Years in the Making 𝘓𝘶𝘹𝘰𝘯’𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘗𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘺 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦, 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘪𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧𝘧 𝘨𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘥. Opinion: Bruce Alpine. O n Thursday 6 August, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon told Newstalk ZB that if National is returned to power he would hold a referendum on the MMP (Mixed Member Proportional) voting system, alongside one on moving to a four-year parliamentary term.  He framed it as a constitutional “check-in”: after three decades, is this still the system New Zealanders want?  He also linked it to the practical realities of coalition government, remarking that he did not need “some yahoo or numpty” from another party around the Cabinet table if National could secure a stronger mandate on its own.  The remarks surprised coalition partners — Winston Peters called them “inexplicable...

National’s 10-Point Collapse Exposes Luxon’s Failure 𝘓𝘶𝘹𝘰𝘯’𝘴 𝘛𝘰𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘐𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘌𝘹𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥: 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭’𝘴 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘴 10-𝘗𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵 𝘊𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘱𝘴𝘦 𝘗𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘝𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘞𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘋𝘶𝘱𝘦𝘥 Opinion: Bruce Alpine. T he National-led coalition government has shed approximately 7–10 percentage points in party vote support since its 2023 election victory, when it secured 38.1% of the vote and 48 seats.  Recent polling is damning.  As of early July 2026, RNZ–Reid Research placed National at a new low of 28.7%, with Labour surging to 34%.  Taxpayers’ Union–Curia, Roy Morgan, Verian, and Talbot Mills polls consistently show National languishing between 28–31%.  The governing bloc (National + ACT + NZ First) clings to a narrow or vanishing lead around 50%, projecting a precarious or lost majority under MMP ahead of the November 7 election.  During the 2023 election, voters were uncertain about the new leader Christopher...

Opportunity Knocks. From Fringe to Kingmaker? 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘖𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘗𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘺’𝘴 𝘉𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘔𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵: 𝘊𝘢𝘯 𝘌𝘷𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦-𝘉𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴 𝘞𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘌𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯? Analysis: Bruce Alpine. O ver the recent polling cycle, The Opportunity Party (TOP) has surged in Aotearoa opinion polls, recording 4–6.5% support and positioning itself as a potential kingmaker ahead of the November 7 election.   Recent surveys, including Roy Morgan (6.5%), 1News-Verian (4.6%), and  RNZ-Reid Research poll (4.7%)   show The Opportnunity Party nearing or clearing the 5% MMP threshold.  This marks its strongest performance in a decade of attempts. Several factors explain this momentum.  First, widespread disillusionment with the two major parties. National and Labour have hit historic lows in some polls amid ongoing economic pressures—housing affordability, cost of living, stagnant productivity, and policy inconsistency....

A growing number of foreign leaders have had it with Trump 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘐𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘨𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘱𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘻𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚 𝘗𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘋𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘥 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘗𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘎𝘪𝘰𝘳𝘨𝘪𝘢 𝘔𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘪 𝘩𝘢𝘥 “𝘣𝘦𝘨𝘨𝘦𝘥” 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘱𝘩𝘰𝘵𝘰 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘩𝘪𝘮 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘎7 𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘵. Analysis:  Aaron Blake for  CNN . I talian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could have denied Trump's claim that she begged him to take a photo together and left it at that.  Instead, she went much further. She posted a video on X that made a show of standing up to Trump and linked the episode to his ill treatment of allies.  "I can only say that it's a shame he doesn't have the same determination with the enemies of the West, with the enemies of the United States, with leaderships with which he instead appears much more accommodating," Mel...