The Bull Ring

National’s 10-Point Collapse Exposes Luxon’s Failure 𝘓𝘶𝘹𝘰𝘯’𝘴 𝘛𝘰𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘐𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘌𝘹𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥: 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭’𝘴 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘴 10-𝘗𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵 𝘊𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘱𝘴𝘦 𝘗𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘝𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘞𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘋𝘶𝘱𝘦𝘥 Opinion: Bruce Alpine. T he National-led coalition government has shed approximately 7–10 percentage points in party vote support since its 2023 election victory, when it secured 38.1% of the vote and 48 seats.  Recent polling is damning.  As of early July 2026, RNZ–Reid Research placed National at a new low of 28.7%, with Labour surging to 34%.  Taxpayers’ Union–Curia, Roy Morgan, Verian, and Talbot Mills polls consistently show National languishing between 28–31%.  The governing bloc (National + ACT + NZ First) clings to a narrow or vanishing lead around 50%, projecting a precarious or lost majority under MMP ahead of the November 7 election.  During the 2023 election, voters were uncertain about the new leader Christopher...

Opportunity Knocks. From Fringe to Kingmaker? 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘖𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘗𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘺’𝘴 𝘉𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘔𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵: 𝘊𝘢𝘯 𝘌𝘷𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦-𝘉𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴 𝘞𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘌𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯? Analysis: Bruce Alpine. O ver the recent polling cycle, The Opportunity Party (TOP) has surged in Aotearoa opinion polls, recording 4–6.5% support and positioning itself as a potential kingmaker ahead of the November 7 election.   Recent surveys, including Roy Morgan (6.5%), 1News-Verian (4.6%), and  RNZ-Reid Research poll (4.7%)   show The Opportnunity Party nearing or clearing the 5% MMP threshold.  This marks its strongest performance in a decade of attempts. Several factors explain this momentum.  First, widespread disillusionment with the two major parties. National and Labour have hit historic lows in some polls amid ongoing economic pressures—housing affordability, cost of living, stagnant productivity, and policy inconsistency....

A growing number of foreign leaders have had it with Trump 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘐𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘨𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘱𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘻𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚 𝘗𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘋𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘥 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘗𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘎𝘪𝘰𝘳𝘨𝘪𝘢 𝘔𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘪 𝘩𝘢𝘥 “𝘣𝘦𝘨𝘨𝘦𝘥” 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘱𝘩𝘰𝘵𝘰 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘩𝘪𝘮 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘎7 𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘵. Analysis:  Aaron Blake for  CNN . I talian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could have denied Trump's claim that she begged him to take a photo together and left it at that.  Instead, she went much further. She posted a video on X that made a show of standing up to Trump and linked the episode to his ill treatment of allies.  "I can only say that it's a shame he doesn't have the same determination with the enemies of the West, with the enemies of the United States, with leaderships with which he instead appears much more accommodating," Mel...

National Party's Anti-Labour Rants Scream Desperation. 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭'𝘴 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘓𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘵𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘦. Analysis: Bruce Alpine. N ational’s high-ranking MPs have turned media stand-ups into reflexive anti-Labour rants, exposing a glaring inability to articulate and sell their own vision for New Zealand’s future. Finance Minister Nicola Willis and campaign chair Simeon Brown exemplify this habit.  Rather than confidently outlining progress on “fixing the basics” or painting an optimistic path forward, their appearances devolve into scripted attacks, dossiers, and soundbites that dominate airtime but betray insecurity.  In a recent Sunday press conference , Willis brandished “Labour’s Hidden Bill”—a glossy document claiming a $18.2 billion shortfall between Labour’s spending promises - pay equity restoration, reversing cuts, transport caps, and their capital gains tax revenue.  She challenge...

National Party Leads Hypocritical Charge For Labour Policy Release The National Party is pressing the Labour Party to unveil its policy for the Nov 7 election, while overlooking and hoping the voter forget how late they released their own policy before the 2023 election. Analysis: Bruce Alpine. A s the 2026 Aotearoa New Zealand election approaches, the national party and media are demanding the Labour party release policy. Forgetting the national party didnt release any policy until July.  Less than two months from the Oct 14 2023 election . As National and media demand openness from Labour, a closer look at their own playbook before the 2023, election reveals a more nuanced story—one marked by strategic timing rather than unbridled transparency.  National's policy rollout was deliberate and campaign-focused, ramping up in the final months to capture media attention and voter momentum.  The sequence began on July 23, 2023 , with a robust law-and-order package.  ...