The Bull Ring

POLL: Opportunity Party Crosses MMP Threshold Amid Luxon Leadership Crisis 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴𝘵 1𝘕𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘝𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘭 (8–11 𝘈𝘶𝘨𝘶𝘴𝘵) 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘸𝘴 𝘓𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘯 30% (𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 2), 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 𝘢𝘵 29%, 𝘎𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘯𝘴 12%, 𝘈𝘊𝘛 𝘶𝘱 𝘵𝘰 9%, 𝘖𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 3 𝘱𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘰 8%, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘕𝘡 𝘍𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘥𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘨 3 𝘱𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘰 8%. Analysis: Bruce Alpine. T he latest 1News Verian poll (fielded 8–11 August 2026, sample 847, margin of error ±3.4%) delivers a clear verdict on the National-led government’s fragility and the collapse of traditional two-party dominance.  Labour sits on 30% (down 2 points from June), National holds steady at 29%, the Greens fall to 12%, ACT rises sharply to 9%, NZ First drops 3 points to 8%, Opportunity surges 3 points to 8% (clearing the threshold for the first time in a 1News Verian poll), and Te Pāti Māori sits at 1%. Party standings. file Projected seats in a 125-member House (assu...

POLL: Coalition Holds Power – But Greens Surge, While Major Parties Slide. 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘛𝘝1/𝘝𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘭 𝘰𝘧 2026: 𝘊𝘰𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘴 𝘮𝘢𝘫𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 & 𝘓𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘴𝘭𝘪𝘥𝘦, 𝘎𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘯𝘴 𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘨𝘦 𝘵𝘰 11%, 𝘕𝘡 𝘍𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘰 10%. 𝘈𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘪𝘴: Bruce Alpine . T he February 2026 1News Verian poll , conducted 7–11 February and released 16 February, provides the first significant insight into voter sentiment as New Zealand enters election year ahead of the November 2026 vote.  Surveying 1,003 eligible voters via mixed mobile and online panels (margin of error ±3.1%), it highlights a coalition government still comfortably ahead but with clear signs of voter fatigue and shifting dynamics among minor parties.  Credit: Bruce Alpine Party support shows National at 34% (down 2 points from December 2025), Labour at 32% (down 3 points).  Their combined 66% is notably low com...