The Bull Ring

National’s 10-Point Collapse Exposes Luxon’s Failure 𝘓𝘶𝘹𝘰𝘯’𝘴 𝘛𝘰𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘐𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘌𝘹𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥: 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭’𝘴 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘴 10-𝘗𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵 𝘊𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘱𝘴𝘦 𝘗𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘝𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘞𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘋𝘶𝘱𝘦𝘥 Opinion: Bruce Alpine. T he National-led coalition government has shed approximately 7–10 percentage points in party vote support since its 2023 election victory, when it secured 38.1% of the vote and 48 seats.  Recent polling is damning.  As of early July 2026, RNZ–Reid Research placed National at a new low of 28.7%, with Labour surging to 34%.  Taxpayers’ Union–Curia, Roy Morgan, Verian, and Talbot Mills polls consistently show National languishing between 28–31%.  The governing bloc (National + ACT + NZ First) clings to a narrow or vanishing lead around 50%, projecting a precarious or lost majority under MMP ahead of the November 7 election.  During the 2023 election, voters were uncertain about the new leader Christopher...

Opportunity Knocks. From Fringe to Kingmaker? 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘖𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘗𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘺’𝘴 𝘉𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘔𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵: 𝘊𝘢𝘯 𝘌𝘷𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦-𝘉𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴 𝘞𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘌𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯? Analysis: Bruce Alpine. O ver the recent polling cycle, The Opportunity Party (TOP) has surged in Aotearoa opinion polls, recording 4–6.5% support and positioning itself as a potential kingmaker ahead of the November 7 election.   Recent surveys, including Roy Morgan (6.5%), 1News-Verian (4.6%), and  RNZ-Reid Research poll (4.7%)   show The Opportnunity Party nearing or clearing the 5% MMP threshold.  This marks its strongest performance in a decade of attempts. Several factors explain this momentum.  First, widespread disillusionment with the two major parties. National and Labour have hit historic lows in some polls amid ongoing economic pressures—housing affordability, cost of living, stagnant productivity, and policy inconsistency....