POLL: Coalition Holds Power – But Greens Surge, While Major Parties Slide.

𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘛𝘝1/𝘝𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘭 𝘰𝘧 2026: 𝘊𝘰𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘴 𝘮𝘢𝘫𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 & 𝘓𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘴𝘭𝘪𝘥𝘦, 𝘎𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘯𝘴 𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘨𝘦 𝘵𝘰 11%, 𝘕𝘡 𝘍𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘰 10%.

𝘈𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘪𝘴: Bruce Alpine.

T

he February 2026 1News Verian poll, conducted 7–11 February and released 16 February, provides the first significant insight into voter sentiment as New Zealand enters election year ahead of the November 2026 vote. 

Surveying 1,003 eligible voters via mixed mobile and online panels (margin of error ±3.1%), it highlights a coalition government still comfortably ahead but with clear signs of voter fatigue and shifting dynamics among minor parties. 

Credit: Bruce Alpine

Party support shows National at 34% (down 2 points from December 2025), Labour at 32% (down 3 points). 

Their combined 66% is notably low compared to recent Verian trends, reflecting dissatisfaction with the two largest parties. 

The Greens surge to 11% (up 4 points), their strongest showing in the series recently, likely driven by climate concerns, cost-of-living pressures, and extreme weather impacts. 

New Zealand First rises to 10% (up 1 point), doubling from a year earlier and marking its highest Verian result since August 2017—suggesting Winston Peters is capitalising on disillusionment with the government he supports. 

ACT holds at 9% (down 1 point), while Te Pāti Māori edges up to 2% (up 1 point). 

Credit: TVNZ

Seat projections (factoring in likely electorate wins and potential overhang) give the right bloc a solid 65 seats to the left's 59 in a 120-seat Parliament (with minor overhang possible). 

Breakdown: 

• National ~42 
• ACT ~11 
• NZ First ~12 
• Labour ~39 
• Greens ~14 
• Te Pāti Māori ~6 (assuming strong electorate performance). 

This keeps the coalition (National-ACT-NZ First) with a clear majority. 

Credit: TVNZ

In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, Chris Hipkins (Labour) and Christopher Luxon (National) tie at 20%—a rare equality, with Luxon down 3 points and Hipkins down 1. 

Winston Peters scores 10%, Chlöe Swarbrick (Greens) 5%, David Seymour (ACT) 4%. 

Both major leaders are unusually weak for this cycle stage, signalling broad dissatisfaction. 

Government performance averages a lukewarm 5/10. 

Coalition voters rate it higher (National ~6.7, ACT ~6.4), while opposition supporters are critical (Labour ~3.6, Greens ~3.1). 

Economic optimism sits at around 40%, underscoring ongoing cost-of-living and growth concerns. 

Taken post-Waitangi and after Luxon confirmed the election date, the poll captures early-year mood. 

National's dip and Labour's slide fragment the vote toward minors. 

NZ First's rebound positions Peters as kingmaker again, appealing to voters feeling overlooked. 

The Green rise indicates momentum on environmental and social issues. 

File: Bruce Alpine

Leader reactions were predictable: Hipkins highlighted the government's "abysmal" rating and the tied PM preference as a positive for opposition. 

Luxon sidestepped numbers, focusing on economic delivery. 

Peters touted his combative style. Swarbrick stressed accountability over polls; Seymour downplayed his dip; Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer emphasised grassroots effort. 

With nine months to go, the coalition remains favourite but vulnerable. 

Major parties' combined weakness and minor-party gains could tighten the race or force a hung parliament if trends continue. 

Economic results and policy delivery will be decisive—voters seem grumpy but not yet decisive about change. 

The poll sets a cautious starting line: stability for now, but plenty of volatility ahead.

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