A high-stakes test of trust in the system, and each other

Despite cautions from some, the Government has “ploughed ahead” with moving Auckland out of Level 3. Now, public health officials - and Kiwis as a whole – must show it is not wrong to place our faith in them, Sam Sachdeva writes.

As Aucklanders awake to a Level 2 world, they – with the rest of the country – are heading into uncertain territory.

The last time any part of the country moved out of Level 3, on May 11, it was after a sustained period of lockdown which had largely broken the back of outbreaks around the country.

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Now, Auckland moves down alert levels with community transmission still ongoing (albeit connected to a single cluster) and all the risk that entails.

In recent days, experts like Shaun Hendy and Michael Baker had called on the Government to rethink the relatively swift move back into more normal life, either by keeping Auckland at Level 3 or enforcing more wide-ranging rules on mask use.

But speaking to Magic Talk ahead of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s press conference, Health Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed the Government was “still ploughing ahead with Level 2” – a perhaps inadvisable choice of words to reassure New Zealanders the benefits and risks were being carefully weighed.

Ardern offered a more articulate defence of the Government’s position a few hours later – but also a sense of the stakes at play.

The design of the Covid alert system had anticipated the country could be in Level 2 while trying to stamp out an ongoing cluster, she said, with human foibles the main area of potential concern.

“Our system is good, it is designed to keep us on track with our elimination strategy at Level 2 in the scenario we now have, but it will only work if people follow the guidance...

“There is no corner that has been untouched by this cluster, that’s why the rules are for everyone, and we need everyone in Auckland to stick to them, no matter where you are.”

Killing Covid without lockdowns

Indeed, despite suggestions to the contrary, New Zealand’s elimination strategy has never been predicated on keeping the country in lockdown until any transmission is killed off.

Instead, robust contact tracing and testing systems, coupled with use of masks and physical distancing, should allow Kiwis to enjoy greater freedoms without putting their health at risk.

In a vacuum, that is a sound theory, and we have certainly demonstrated an ability to carry out significant levels of testing in a short timeframe, while also meeting the “gold standard” of tracing more than 80 per cent of a case’s contacts within 48 hours.

But there are still some question marks over the robustness of our testing regime, particularly for border workers and staff in managed isolation and quarantine facilities, which could give some pause for thought about our ability to quickly trap and isolate new cases in Auckland or elsewhere.

Communication screw-ups like that from the Unite Against Covid-19 team, incorrectly asking everybody in South Auckland and West Auckland to seek a test – only for Ardern to issue a belated retraction – cause unnecessary fear and lead to confusion about the circumstances under which someone should actually seek a test.

Little wonder the Prime Minister described herself as “incredibly angry”, particularly given the offending social media posts were still online as her press conference took place (they were swiftly removed once that was pointed out by journalists).

Then there is the issue of masks: from Monday, mandatory on public transport, but not more widely, despite Ardern encouraging Aucklanders to wear one whenever they stepped outside.

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Cabinet had not ruled out enforcing their use more widely in the future, she said, but cited the legal complexities around such a mandate as a reason to move carefully.

Instead, trust in voluntary support for such measures will win the day for now - and it is that issue of community compliance which will play a significant role in the outcome of this move to Level 2.

That is also true for physical distancing requirements, which seem to fall by the wayside all too easily as people underestimate what a two-metre distance looks like – or simply forget to keep their distance altogether.

This is a high-profile, high-stakes stress test of both our public health system and the ability and willingness of New Zealanders to act in the common good.

Succeed, and there is proof of concept that we can indeed succeed against Covid-19 without endless lockdowns. Fail, and the consequences do not bear thinking about.

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