𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕤𝕥𝕚𝕝𝕝 𝕝𝕠𝕠𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕘𝕠𝕠𝕕 𝕒𝕤 𝕟𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕥𝕒𝕜𝕖𝕤 𝕤𝕦𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕣𝕥 𝕠𝕗𝕗 𝔸ℂ𝕋

ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕚𝕤 𝕔𝕝𝕒𝕨𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕓𝕒𝕔𝕜 𝕤𝕦𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕣𝕥 𝕒𝕟𝕕 𝕓𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕠𝕗𝕗 𝕔𝕙𝕦𝕟𝕜𝕤 𝕗𝕣𝕠𝕞 𝔸ℂ𝕋, 𝕨𝕙𝕚𝕝𝕖 𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕝𝕠𝕠𝕜𝕤 𝕣𝕖𝕝𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕧𝕖𝕝𝕪 𝕦𝕟𝕤𝕔𝕒𝕥𝕙𝕖𝕕 𝕕𝕖𝕤𝕡𝕚𝕥𝕖 𝕒 𝕥𝕦𝕣𝕓𝕦𝕝𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕥𝕚𝕞𝕖 𝕞𝕒𝕟𝕒𝕘𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕡𝕒𝕟𝕕𝕖𝕞𝕚𝕔. ℍ𝕠𝕨𝕖𝕧𝕖𝕣, 𝕚𝕥𝕤 𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕕𝕖𝕣 𝕁𝕒𝕔𝕚𝕟𝕕𝕒 𝔸𝕣𝕕𝕖𝕣𝕟 𝕙𝕒𝕤 𝕕𝕣𝕠𝕡𝕡𝕖𝕕 𝕥𝕠 𝕙𝕖𝕣 𝕝𝕠𝕨𝕖𝕤𝕥 𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕦𝕝𝕥 𝕒𝕤 𝕡𝕣𝕖𝕗𝕖𝕣𝕣𝕖𝕕 ℙ𝕄 𝕤𝕚𝕟𝕔𝕖 𝕊𝕖𝕡𝕥𝕖𝕞𝕓𝕖𝕣 𝟚𝟘𝟙𝟟, 𝕨𝕙𝕚𝕝𝕖 ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝’𝕤 𝕋𝕙𝕖 𝔽𝕒𝕓𝕖𝕣𝕘é 𝕖𝕘𝕘 𝕛𝕦𝕞𝕡𝕖𝕕 𝕦𝕡 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕡𝕣𝕖𝕗𝕖𝕣𝕣𝕖𝕕 ℙ𝕄 𝕣𝕒𝕟𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕘𝕤 𝕚𝕟 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕗𝕚𝕣𝕤𝕥 𝕡𝕠𝕝𝕝 𝕤𝕚𝕟𝕔𝕖 𝕓𝕖𝕔𝕠𝕞𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕕𝕖𝕣.

T

he first 1News Kantar Public poll for 2022 showed party support for Labour down one to 40%, National up four to 32%, ACT down three to 11%, while the Green Party was steady on 9%. 

Party support

Labour: 40% (down 1 percentage point)

National: 32% (up 4pp.)

ACT: 11% (down 3pp.)

Green Party: 9% (steady)

New Zealand First: 2% (down 1pp.)

Te Pāti Māori: 2% (up 1pp.)

The Opportunities Party (TOP): 2% (up 1pp.)

New Conservative: 1% (steady)

Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party: 1% (steady)

Don’t know: 7% (steady)

Refused: 4% (up 2pp.)

*Percentages do not add to 100 due to rounding. For party support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers.

.

Labour had steadily declined in the last six polls since the 2020 election, sitting on 53% in the December 2020 poll, now down to 40%.

Jacinda Ardern said the result of the latest poll was "still a really strong showing for us as Government despite some really hard calls having been made, but calls that have put us in the best possible position to continue to take on this pandemic".

"When I reflect on the last six months, it has been a really hard period for New Zealand and we have had to make some really hard decisions, but those are still decisions I absolutely stand by… that ultimately means we're on the best possible footing to take on this next wave."

ouch, that's a bad start for Luxon on preferred PM.

No-one who has started at preferred PM below 20% has gone on to win an election. Collins (Collins!) started at 20%. https://t.co/skLrPKQiZk

— Clint Smith (@ClintVSmith) January 27, 2022

National pulled its strongest result since October 2020 - 32%.

Luxon said National's result was "positive and encouraging".

"I'm really focused on what we've got to do in the National Party," he said.

"Fundamentally we've got to get into the work and now follow up our words with actions."

He said that meant opposing the Government on issues such as the slow rollout of rapid antigen testing, and coming up with ideas "that New Zealanders can say, 'that's fantastic that's solving some of our biggest problems'."

ACT dropped to 11% support – a result that was still one of the highest the party had received.

Leader David Seymour said ACT was in a "very strong position as the third most popular party".

"We're at 11% and able to give New Zealanders an option, who don't just want to change the Government but set a new direction for New Zealand. ACT remains at record levels of support, our third-best poll in the history of TV1's polling.

"We're not just here to get Jacinda out of the Beehive, we're here to put new ideas in the Beehive, too."

For preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern took a 4-point dive to 35% - still ahead of her political competitors but a significant drop.

It’s her lowest result since before the 2017 election when she sat at 31%.

She last sat around that mark in November 2019, where she garnered 36%.

Preferred PM

Jacinda Ardern: 35% (down 4pp.)

Christopher Luxon: 17% (up 13pp.)

David Seymour: 6% (down 5pp.)

Winston Peters: 1% (steady)

Chlöe Swarbrick: 1% (down 1pp.)

Don't know: 28% (up 2pp.)

None/refused: 5% (steady)

Luxon, late last year emerging as leader from the rubble of National's political storm, surged up 13pp. to 17% as preferred Prime Minister.

In comparison to his predecessors, Simon Bridges increased from 1% to 10% in April 2018, Todd Muller increased from 0.2% to 13% in June 2020 and Judith Collins jumped up 18% in the July 2020 poll (from 2% to 20%) when she became leader. In the latest poll, Collins dropped down to 0.2%.

Luxon also rose to the detriment of Seymour – who fell 5pp. to 6% as preferred PM. Previously, Seymour had received 11% in the November and September 2021 polls.

Parliamentary seats entitlement based on poll results:

Labour: 51

National: 41

ACT Party: 14

Green Party: 12

Māori Party: 2

*The Parliament seat entitlement method assumes Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

Parliament seat entitlement based on the poll results would still see the Labour Party and Green Party have enough seats to form a Government, while National and ACT would only have 55 seats between them.

When asked about the economy, 49% (up 2pp.) of those polled thought that in the next 12 months the economy would be in a worse shape than at present, while 22% (down 7pp.) thought it would be better and 29% (up 4pp.) thought it would be the same.

Ardern said relative to other countries, "New Zealand has done incredibly well in terms of the way our economy has held up".

.

.

"This will be the year in which we begin to reconnect, and it will make a difference to how we perform as an economy."

On the economy, Luxon said he was worried about "New Zealand people who are sitting there tonight, anxious about how they're going to pay their bills… the cost of things are going up twice as much as wage growth is".

Many may notice the new name of the 1News poll. It’s the same pollsters, the same techniques but a different name – the 1News Kantar Public poll.

Between January 22 to 26, 2022, 1000 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For party support and preferred Prime Minister, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, education level and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. 

.