𝔼𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕠𝕞𝕪 𝕓𝕒𝕔𝕜 𝕚𝕟 𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕖𝕤𝕤𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕒𝕤 𝔾𝔻ℙ 𝕤𝕙𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕜𝕤 𝕓𝕪 𝟙%

• 𝔼𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕠𝕞𝕪 𝕤𝕙𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕜𝕤 𝟙.𝟘% 𝕚𝕟 𝕊𝕖𝕡𝕥𝕖𝕞𝕓𝕖𝕣 𝕢𝕦𝕒𝕣𝕥𝕖𝕣, -𝟙.𝟝% 𝕠𝕟 𝕪𝕖𝕒𝕣 𝕒𝕘𝕠 
• ℂ𝕠𝕟𝕥𝕣𝕒𝕔𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕤𝕖𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕕 𝕚𝕟 𝕒 𝕣𝕠𝕨 𝕞𝕖𝕖𝕥𝕤 𝕥𝕖𝕔𝕙𝕟𝕚𝕔𝕒𝕝 𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕖𝕤𝕤𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕕𝕖𝕗𝕚𝕟𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟
• 𝕊𝕖𝕡𝕥𝕖𝕞𝕓𝕖𝕣 𝕢𝕦𝕒𝕣𝕥𝕖𝕣 𝟚𝟘𝟚𝟜 𝕣𝕖𝕧𝕚𝕤𝕖𝕕 𝕥𝕠 𝕒 𝕗𝕒𝕝𝕝 𝕠𝕗 𝟙.𝟙%, 𝕓𝕦𝕥 𝕟𝕖𝕘𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕧𝕖 𝕕𝕒𝕥𝕒 𝕠𝕗 𝟚𝟘𝟚𝟚/𝟚𝟛 𝕕𝕚𝕤𝕒𝕡𝕡𝕖𝕒𝕣𝕤 
• 𝕄𝕒𝕟𝕦𝕗𝕒𝕔𝕥𝕦𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕚𝕟𝕕𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕣𝕚𝕖𝕤 𝕤𝕝𝕦𝕞𝕡, 𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕤𝕥𝕣𝕦𝕔𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟, 𝕓𝕦𝕤𝕚𝕟𝕖𝕤𝕤 𝕤𝕖𝕣𝕧𝕚𝕔𝕖𝕤 𝕨𝕖𝕒𝕜𝕖𝕣
• 𝔸𝕘𝕣𝕚𝕔𝕦𝕝𝕥𝕦𝕣𝕖, 𝕣𝕖𝕟𝕥𝕒𝕝, 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕝 𝕖𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕥𝕖 𝕤𝕖𝕣𝕧𝕚𝕔𝕖𝕤 𝕙𝕚𝕘𝕙𝕖𝕣

T

he economy was in a deeper than expected recession in the middle of the year, with widespread contraction across many sectors.

Stats NZ data shows gross domestic product, the broad measure of economic growth, fell 1 percent in the three months ended September, to be 1.5 percent lower than a year ago.

Significant revisions to previous figures resulted in a fall of 1.1 percent in the June quarter, meeting the definition of technical recession.

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These were the biggest quarterly falls since late 2021 at the height of the pandemic and lockdowns, but excluding those the six monthly fall was the largest since mid-1991.

However, previous negative readings for 2022/23 have largely disappeared.

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— Elephant in the room (@LuxonNotMyGovt) December 19, 2024

Stats NZ said extra data had shown a different performance of the economy.

A top NZ economist predicted the useless govt promises will make the recession worse. file: 𝕵𝖔𝖍𝖓𝖓𝖞 ᴴᴰ

"The data incorporated this year shows stronger growth over the last year, followed by two significant falls in the latest quarters," spokesperson Jason Attewell said.

Short sharp recession

The big falls in the June and September quarters were the biggest quarterly drops since late 2021 at the height of the pandemic and lockdowns.

But excluding those the six-monthly fall was the largest since mid-1991.

The main contributors to the latest contraction were a 2.6 percent fall in manufacturing, 3.7 percent in electricity and gas, 2.8 percent drop in construction, and 1.1 percent decline in retail.

The fall in manufacturing in part reflected the energy crunch in mid-winter which forced some businesses to reduce or halt production.

The growth spots were agriculture on the back of the strong dairy production, information and technology, and rental and real estate industries.

Individual shares of the economy shrank again, by 1.2 percent during the quarter, the eighth consecutive quarterly fall.

The latest GDP reading is expected to be the low point of the recent economic cycle, with falling interest rates expected to give a spark to household spending and business investment.

Forecasts are for tepid but positive growth from the end of this year picking up pace in the second half of next year to average 2-3 percent over the next few years.

New Zealand's economic activity was the weakest of all its major trading partners.

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Economy was in 'extremely poor health'

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said the GDP report was "markedly different to expectations".

"Relative to our forecast, the biggest downward surprises were in government and healthcare," Gordon said.

"Personnel spending is a key indicator of activity for these sectors, however Stats NZ notes that redundancy payments have been inflating these measures recently and have made adjustments for them."

Gordon said the downward revision to the June quarter was partly due to an update of seasonal adjustments, but could not be attributed to any given sectors, and would need "further investigation".

ASB senior economist Kim Mundy said the goods-producing sector was the biggest drag in the third quarter, while construction activity fell for the fifth straight quarter amid a decline in residential building.

"Today's data highlight that the NZ economy was in extremely poor health during the middle of the year. And the data reinforces that it was vital that the RBNZ started to take its foot off the brake as we had noted."

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