ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝: 𝕃𝕖𝕗𝕥 𝕓𝕝𝕠𝕔 𝕔𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕞 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕥 𝕒𝕤 ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕤𝕝𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕤

ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕙𝕒𝕤 𝕗𝕒𝕝𝕝𝕖𝕟 𝕤𝕙𝕒𝕣𝕡𝕝𝕪 𝕚𝕟 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕝𝕒𝕥𝕖𝕤𝕥 𝟙ℕ𝕖𝕨𝕤 𝕍𝕖𝕣𝕚𝕒𝕟 𝕡𝕠𝕝𝕝 𝕨𝕙𝕚𝕝𝕖 𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕙𝕒𝕤 𝕔𝕝𝕚𝕞𝕓𝕖𝕕, 𝕘𝕚𝕧𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕝𝕖𝕗𝕥 𝕓𝕝𝕠𝕔 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕟𝕦𝕞𝕓𝕖𝕣𝕤 𝕥𝕠 𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕞 𝕒 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥.

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ational was down 3% and Labour up 4% in the poll, which surveyed 1000 eligible voters and ran from February 3 to 7.

It found that if an election were held today, the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 61 seats — enough to govern.

The right bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First would have 60 seats, one short as a result of an overhang.

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National has fallen to 34% compared to their previous result of 37% recorded in December, while Labour has surged to 33% — up from the 29% they recorded in the last poll.

The Greens were steady and ACT were up 1% to 9%. New Zealand First were back to teetering on the edge of the threshold, polling at 5%, down 1%. 

Te Pāti Māori has also dropped significantly, falling by 3% from their previous record showing of 7% which came after the national hīkoi.

The poll comes after the quiet summer period in politics though Prime Minister Christopher Luxon reshuffled his Cabinet in January with key changes in health and transport among other portfolios.

Today’s numbers mean that National would have 43 seats in Parliament, down 6 on their current allocation, Labour would have 42, up 8, The Greens would have 13, down 1, ACT would have 11, the same number as they have at present.

New Zealand First would have 6, down 2, and Te Pāti Māori would also have 6, as they do at present. That assumes they win the 6 Māori seats that they won at the 2023 election.

Parliament's size would reduce by 2 down to 121 seats. There would still be an overhang of 1 seat as a result of Te Pāti Māori's result.

Of those asked, 12% of people said they didn't know or refused to say who they would vote for — up 2% on the previous poll.

Overall voter trend since 2023 election to February 2025. file: 𝕵𝖔𝖍𝖓𝖓𝖞 ᴴᴰ

Economic fears, PM slips

The poll also found there was growing concern about the state of the economy and delivered a further blow to Luxon.

Economic optimism fell by 5% on the December Verian poll, down to 36%, while economic pessimism was up 3% to 25%.

Those polled were also asked whether they thought the Government was going in the right or wrong direction. A total of 39% said it was going in the right direction, but 50% said the country was going in the wrong direction. The remaining 11% didn't know or preferred not to say.

(Source: 1News)

In the preferred prime minister stakes, National’s Luxon has taken a fall, down by 2% to 22%. It was his lowest result in the polls since he became Prime Minister.

Labour’s Chris Hipkins also remains low but has risen by 2% to 17%.

The rest of the leaders all remained steady, including David Seymour on 6%, Chlöe Swarbrick on 5%, and Winston Peters also on 5%.

Hana Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke, Jacinda Ardern and Rawiri Waititi all received honourable mentions with 1% each.

'Out of his depth' — Hipkins

But Hipkins said: "I think New Zealanders can see that Christopher Luxon's out of his depth, he's not showing leadership, he's not making the tough decisions that he needs to make. Winston Peters and David Seymour are running rings around him."

Despite the positive poll result, Hipkins acknowledged there was a long time to go before the next election. "We've got a lot of hard work ahead, we have to go out there and work for every single vote, we are not taking anything for granted."

ACT was the only coalition party to see a rise in the poll. But its leader Seymour says there's more work to do. "Well, there's still 91% of voters not voting for ACT and I welcome them in."

He said he believed the overall drop for the coalition was because people’s decisions were affected by the economy. "I think in the long term all three governing parties will do better as the economy improves. Right now we're doing the spade work.”

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Preferred prime minister

Christopher Luxon – 22% (down 2%)

Chris Hipkins – 17% (up 2%)

Chlöe Swarbrick – 6% (steady)

David Seymour – 6% (steady)

Winston Peters – 5% (steady)

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