𝔸𝕟𝕠𝕥𝕙𝕖𝕣 ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝 𝕡𝕝𝕒𝕔𝕖𝕤 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕠𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕤𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕒𝕙𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕠𝕗 𝕥𝕙𝕖 ℂ𝕠𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥

𝔸𝕟𝕠𝕥𝕙𝕖𝕣 ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝 𝕡𝕝𝕒𝕔𝕖𝕤 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕠𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕤𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕒𝕙𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕠𝕗 𝕥𝕙𝕖 ℂ𝕠𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥

T

he March 2025 Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll shows Labour narrowly leading, buoyed by Hipkins’ appeal, while the coalition falters amid economic and policy challenges. The centre-left holds a slim edge, but the outcome hinges on turnout, electorate results, and coalition negotiations. 

Poll Results 

Party Vote (March 2–4, 2025, Taxpayers' Union-Curia): 

• Labour: 34.1% (+2.8 from February) 
•  National: 33.6% (+1.7) 
•  Greens: 10% (-3.2) 
•  ACT: 7.7% (-2.3) 
•  Te Pāti Māori (TPM): 6.5% (+2.1) 
•  NZ First (NZF): 5.1% (-1.3)  

Preferred Prime Minister: 

• Chris Hipkins (Labour): 20.7% (+3.1) 
•  Christopher Luxon (National): 20.3% (-0.4)

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Additional Reading:

𝕋𝕙𝕖 ℙ𝕣𝕚𝕞𝕖 𝕄𝕚𝕟𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕖𝕣𝕤 𝕝𝕠𝕟𝕘, 𝕤𝕝𝕠𝕨 𝕨𝕒𝕝𝕜 𝕥𝕠 𝕠𝕓𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕚𝕠𝕟

ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝: 𝕃𝕖𝕗𝕥 𝕓𝕝𝕠𝕔 𝕔𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕞 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕥 𝕒𝕤 ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕤𝕝𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕤

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Seat Projections 

New Zealand uses the Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) system, where parties need either 5% of the party vote or one electorate seat to gain representation. 

Electorate seats are assumed to remain unchanged unless specified (e.g., ACT holds Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens hold Auckland Central, Rongotai, and Wellington Central, TPM holds its six Māori electorates). 

Using the Electoral Commission’s MMP calculator and these assumptions, approximate seat projections for a 120-seat Parliament (excluding overhangs) are: 

• National: 33.6% ≈ 40 seats 
•  Labour: 34.1% ≈ 41 seats 
•  Greens: 10% ≈ 12 seats (plus 3 electorate seats, but only party vote counts for list allocation) 
•  ACT: 7.7% ≈ 9 seats (plus 2 electorate seats) 
•  TPM: 6.5% ≈ 8 seats (plus 6 electorate seats, likely causing an overhang) 
•  NZF: 5.1% ≈ 6 seats 

 With TPM’s electorate wins, an overhang could increase the total seats to 122–123, as seen in 2023. 

The centre-left bloc (Labour + Greens + TPM) could reach 61–62 seats, while the current coalition (National + ACT + NZF) might total 55–57 seats. 

This suggests the centre-left could form a government if aligned, though negotiations would be key. 

Analysis 

1. Labour’s Resurgence: Labour’s rise to 34.1% (+2.8) puts it ahead of National for the first time since early 2023, echoing a January 2025 poll where Labour led 30.9% to National’s 29.6%. Chris Hipkins overtaking Christopher Luxon as preferred PM (20.7% vs. 20.3%) signals a personal boost, possibly reflecting dissatisfaction with the coalition’s performance after 17 months in power. 
2.  National’s Stability: National’s 33.6% (+1.7) shows resilience despite governing challenges, but its failure to break 40% under Luxon—unusual for an incumbent PM in MMP—hints at voter fatigue or policy discontent. The coalition’s total support (National + ACT + NZF = 46.4%) is down from earlier highs (e.g., 53% in August 2024 per Roy Morgan). 
3.  Coalition Partners Struggle: ACT’s drop to 7.7% (-2.3) and NZF’s 5.1% (-1.3) weaken the coalition’s buffer. ACT’s libertarian appeal may be waning, while NZF barely clears the 5% threshold, risking exclusion without an electorate seat (which it doesn’t hold). 
4.  Opposition Dynamics: The Greens’ decline to 10% (-3.2) is notable, possibly due to internal issues or voter shifts to Labour. Conversely, TPM’s 6.5% (+2.1) reflects growing Māori support, bolstered by protests against coalition policies like the Treaty Principles Bill (see Roy Morgan November 2024 data). 
5.  Bloc Comparison: The centre-left (Labour + Greens + TPM = 50.6%) edges out the coalition (46.4%), a trend seen in late 2024 polls (e.g., Roy Morgan November 2024: Opposition 50.5%, Coalition 44%). This shift suggests economic concerns and policy backlash are eroding coalition support.

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Additional Reading:

𝔻𝕖𝕞𝕠𝕔𝕣𝕒𝕔𝕪 𝔹𝕣𝕚𝕖𝕗𝕚𝕟𝕘: ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕕𝕖𝕔𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕖 𝕚𝕟 𝟚𝟘𝟚𝟜

ℝ𝕖𝕗𝕖𝕣𝕖𝕟𝕕𝕦𝕞𝕤 𝕠𝕟 𝕝𝕠𝕔𝕒𝕝 𝕔𝕠𝕦𝕟𝕔𝕚𝕝 𝕄ā𝕠𝕣𝕚 𝕨𝕒𝕣𝕕𝕤 𝕥𝕠 𝕣𝕖𝕥𝕦𝕣𝕟 - 𝕃𝕚𝕥𝕥𝕝𝕖 𝕤𝕙𝕠𝕣𝕥 𝕣𝕦𝕟𝕥

𝔸𝕠𝕥𝕖𝕒𝕣𝕠𝕒 ℕ𝕖𝕨 ℤ𝕖𝕒𝕝𝕒𝕟𝕕 𝕗𝕚𝕟𝕒𝕟𝕔𝕚𝕒𝕝 𝕓𝕠𝕠𝕜𝕤 𝕚𝕟 𝕘𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕥 𝕤𝕙𝕒𝕡𝕖 𝕒𝕗𝕥𝕖𝕣 𝕔𝕠𝕧𝕚𝕕 𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕡𝕠𝕟𝕤𝕖 𝕓𝕚𝕥𝕖

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Context and Implications 

• Economic and Social Factors: Polls from early 2025 (e.g., 1News Verian, February) showed economic pessimism (36% optimistic vs. 25% pessimistic) and 50% feeling the country was on the wrong track. This aligns with the coalition’s focus on economic fixes (e.g., tax cuts, spending reductions) not yet resonating. 
•  Gender Split: Historical Roy Morgan data shows men favoring the coalition and women the opposition. If this persists, Labour’s gains may reflect female voter shifts. 
•  2026 Election Outlook: With the next election due by late 2026, this poll indicates a competitive race. The coalition needs to regain ground, while Labour must solidify its bloc’s cohesion.  

Caveat 

Polls are snapshots with a ~3.1% margin of error, so Labour and National are statistically tied. 

𝕭𝖗𝖚𝖈𝖊 𝕬𝖑𝖕𝖎𝖓𝖊

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