ℙ𝕆𝕃𝕃 𝔸𝕟𝕒𝕝𝕪𝕤𝕚𝕤: ℂ𝕠𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 ℝ𝕖𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕟𝕕𝕤 𝕚𝕟 𝔸𝕡𝕣𝕚𝕝 𝟚𝟘𝟚𝟝 𝟙ℕ𝕖𝕨𝕤 𝕍𝕖𝕣𝕚𝕒𝕟 ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝

𝕋𝕙𝕖 𝔸𝕡𝕣𝕚𝕝 𝟚𝟘𝟚𝟝 𝟙ℕ𝕖𝕨𝕤 𝕍𝕖𝕣𝕚𝕒𝕟 𝕡𝕠𝕝𝕝 𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕛𝕖𝕔𝕥𝕤 ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕒𝕥 𝟛𝟞% (+𝟚), 𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝟛𝟚% (-𝟙), ℕℤ 𝔽𝕚𝕣𝕤𝕥 𝟟% (+𝟚), 𝕘𝕚𝕧𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕔𝕠𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝟞𝟜 𝕤𝕖𝕒𝕥𝕤 𝕧𝕤. 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕝𝕖𝕗𝕥’𝕤 𝟝𝟠. 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟’𝕤 𝟚𝟛% (+𝟙) 𝕖𝕕𝕘𝕖𝕤 ℍ𝕚𝕡𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕤’ 𝟚𝟘% (+𝟛), 𝕤𝕚𝕘𝕟𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕒 𝕣𝕚𝕘𝕙𝕥-𝕓𝕝𝕠𝕔 𝕖𝕕𝕘𝕖 𝕒𝕞𝕚𝕕 𝕧𝕠𝕝𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕪.

N

ational’s rise to 36% (up 2% from February’s 34%) in April's 1News/Verian poll marks its first gain in a year, reversing a downward trend seen in polls like February 2025 (34%) and October 2024 (37%). 

This could signal voter approval of coalition efforts—perhaps economic “green shoots” Luxon has emphasized—or fatigue with opposition critiques. 

Credit: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

Labour, slipping to 32% (down 1% from 33%), stalls after a February surge (+4%), suggesting its recovery from the 2023 election low (28%) may be plateauing without a stronger leadership boost. 

The Greens, steady at 10%, maintain consistency despite past volatility (e.g., 14% in April 2024, 10% in December 2024), reinforcing their role as a reliable left-bloc partner. 

ACT, also steady at 9%, shows resilience after climbing from 7% in April 2024, though it’s below its election peak (10-13%), hinting at a loyal but static base. 

.

Related:

𝔸𝕟𝕠𝕥𝕙𝕖𝕣 ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝 𝕡𝕝𝕒𝕔𝕖𝕤 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕠𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕤𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕒𝕙𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕠𝕗 𝕥𝕙𝕖 ℂ𝕠𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥

ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝: 𝕃𝕖𝕗𝕥 𝕓𝕝𝕠𝕔 𝕔𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕞 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕥 𝕒𝕤 ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕤𝕝𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕤

ℕ𝕖𝕨 ℤ𝕖𝕒𝕝𝕒𝕟𝕕 𝕧𝕠𝕥𝕖𝕣𝕤 𝕟𝕠𝕥 𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕧𝕚𝕟𝕔𝕖𝕕 𝕠𝕗 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕝𝕦𝕟𝕔𝕙𝕖𝕤 𝕚𝕟 𝕤𝕔𝕙𝕠𝕠𝕝𝕤 𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕘𝕣𝕒𝕞𝕞𝕖

ℂ𝕙𝕣𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕠𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕣 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟 𝕤𝕥𝕣𝕦𝕘𝕘𝕝𝕖𝕤 𝕒𝕤 𝕔𝕠𝕤𝕥-𝕠𝕗-𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕘𝕝𝕠𝕠𝕞 𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘𝕖𝕣𝕤

.

NZ First’s jump to 7% (up 2%)—its highest since 2017—revives its kingmaker status, echoing its 2023 resurgence (6% in October). 

Te Pāti Māori’s drop to 3% (down 1% from 4%) follows a December 2024 peak (7%), possibly reflecting a post-hīkoi normalisation, though electorate wins could still secure seats. 

Using these figures, the right bloc (National 36%, ACT 9%, NZ First 7%) totals 52%, translating to roughly 64 seats in a 122-seat Parliament (National ~45, ACT ~11, NZ First ~9), assuming an overhang from Te Pāti Māori’s six electorate seats. 

The left bloc (Labour 32%, Greens 10%, Te Pāti Māori 3%) totals 45%, yielding about 58 seats (Labour ~40, Greens ~12, Te Pāti Māori ~6). 

The coalition retains a governing edge, reversing February’s left-bloc lead (61 vs. 60). 

Preferred PM. Credit: 1News

Leadership Ratings 

Luxon’s preferred PM rating of 23% (up 1% from 22%) recovers slightly from his February low, though it’s far from his October 2024 peak (25%). 

This modest uptick might reflect coalition stability, but his persistent sub-25% score suggests limited personal appeal amid economic woes. 

Hipkins, at 20% (up 3% from 17%), narrows the gap, his best since February 2024 (15%), hinting at growing credibility as an opposition leader, though still below Luxon. 

Peters’ rise to 7% (up 2%) aligns with NZ First’s surge, reinforcing his enduring influence. 

Swarbrick’s fall to 4% (down 2% from 6%) and Seymour’s drop to 3% (down 3% from 6%) indicate fading momentum for minor-party leaders, while Maipi-Clarke’s 1% reflects Te Pāti Māori’s niche visibility. 

The spread—Luxon and Hipkins dominating, others trailing—shows a two-horse race with coalition dynamics amplifying Peters.

Voter Trend (1News specific) . Credit: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

Broader Context and Sentiment 

Without April-specific sentiment data, February 2025’s trends (36% economic optimism, down 5%; 25% pessimism, up 3%) likely persist, given ongoing coalition focus on fiscal restraint. 

National’s gain could tie to Luxon’s “turning the corner” narrative, while Labour’s stall might reflect voter skepticism about its alternative vision. 

NZ First’s leap suggests Peters’ populist appeal resonates amid economic or cultural unease, possibly tied to Treaty debates or public service cuts. 

.

Related:

𝔸𝕟𝕒𝕝𝕪𝕤𝕚𝕤: 𝔸𝕠𝕥𝕖𝕒𝕣𝕠𝕒 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥𝕤 𝕒𝕟𝕥𝕚-𝕨𝕠𝕜𝕖 𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕟𝕔𝕖 𝕒𝕟𝕕 𝕧𝕠𝕥𝕖𝕣 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕔𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟

𝔸𝕟𝕒𝕝𝕪𝕤𝕚𝕤: ℍ𝕠𝕨 𝕂𝕚𝕨𝕚𝕤 𝕒𝕣𝕖 𝕗𝕖𝕖𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕥 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕡𝕖𝕣𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕞𝕒𝕟𝕔𝕖 𝕚𝕟 𝔸𝕠𝕥𝕖𝕒𝕣𝕠𝕒

𝕋𝕙𝕖 ℙ𝕣𝕚𝕞𝕖 𝕄𝕚𝕟𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕖𝕣𝕤 𝕝𝕠𝕟𝕘, 𝕤𝕝𝕠𝕨 𝕨𝕒𝕝𝕜 𝕥𝕠 𝕠𝕓𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕚𝕠𝕟

𝕋𝕙𝕖 𝔾𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕟𝕖𝕖𝕕𝕤 𝕥𝕠 𝕘𝕖𝕥 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕝

.

Implications 

The coalition’s 64 seats offer breathing room, a shift from February’s near-tie, but NZ First’s 7% is pivotal—dropping below 5% (e.g., 4% in April 2024) would leave National and ACT short at ~56 seats. 

Projected seats. Credit: 1News

Labour’s left bloc, at 58 seats, remains competitive but needs NZ First’s exclusion or a bigger swing to govern. 

The ±3.1% margin means National (33-39%) and Labour (29-35%) overlap, keeping the race fluid. 

Critical Perspective 

The figures align with Verian’s historical patterns—e.g., National’s 36% matches April 2024—but lack undecided voter data (12% in February) or methodology confirmation. 

Compared to February’s Curia poll (National 31.9%, Labour 31.3%), the right bloc’s edge here is more pronounced, though polling discrepancies caution against overconfidence. 

The real story: a coalition rebound, NZ First’s revival, and a restless electorate still weighing economic pain against political promises

𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

.