ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝’𝕤 $𝟚𝟙𝔹 𝕋𝕒𝕩 ℂ𝕦𝕥𝕤 𝔽𝕦𝕖𝕝 𝔻𝕖𝕓𝕥, 𝕊𝕔𝕣𝕖𝕨 𝕂𝕚𝕨𝕚𝕤

Analysis by Bruce Alpine, May 27. 2025

ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝’𝕤 $𝟚𝟙𝔹 𝕋𝕒𝕩 ℂ𝕦𝕥𝕤 𝔽𝕦𝕖𝕝 𝔻𝕖𝕓𝕥, 𝕊𝕔𝕣𝕖𝕨 𝕂𝕚𝕨𝕚𝕤

𝕋𝕙𝕖 𝕤𝕞𝕦𝕘 ℂ𝕠𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕠𝕗 𝕔𝕙𝕒𝕠𝕤 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕥 𝕙𝕒𝕤 𝕡𝕝𝕦𝕟𝕘𝕖𝕕 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕟𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕚𝕟𝕥𝕠 𝕒 𝕗𝕚𝕤𝕔𝕒𝕝 𝕒𝕓𝕪𝕤𝕤, 𝕓𝕠𝕣𝕣𝕠𝕨𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕒𝕟𝕕 𝕤𝕡𝕖𝕟𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕞𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕥𝕙𝕒𝕟 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕡𝕣𝕖𝕧𝕚𝕠𝕦𝕤 𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕥 𝕨𝕙𝕚𝕝𝕖 𝕘𝕦𝕥𝕥𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕥𝕒𝕩 𝕓𝕒𝕤𝕖 𝕨𝕚𝕥𝕙 𝕒 𝕠𝕓𝕤𝕔𝕖𝕟𝕖 $𝟚𝟙 𝕓𝕚𝕝𝕝𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕚𝕟 𝕥𝕒𝕩 𝕔𝕦𝕥𝕤 𝕗𝕠𝕣 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕣𝕚𝕔𝕙 𝕒𝕟𝕕 𝕝𝕒𝕟𝕕𝕝𝕠𝕣𝕕𝕤.

N

ational’s borrowing is a financial trainwreck. Budget 2024 shovels $12 billion in new debt onto the pile, fueled by a limp economy and a fanatical obsession with $21 billion in tax cuts that have obliterated government revenue. 

Net core Crown debt has skyrocketed to 42.5% of GDP in June 2024, up from Labour’s 38.45% in 2023, with projections hitting 42.6% by March 2025. 

Finance Minister Nicola Willis crows about a 20–40% debt-to-GDP target—tighter than Labour’s 50% ceiling—but it’s a pathetic smokescreen as debt explodes under her watch. 

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Related:

𝔻𝕚𝕕 ℕ𝕚𝕔𝕠𝕝𝕒 𝕎𝕚𝕝𝕝𝕚𝕤 ℝ𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕥𝕙𝕖 ℝ𝕠𝕠𝕞?

𝔹𝕦𝕕𝕘𝕖𝕥 𝟚𝟘𝟚𝟝: 𝕎𝕚𝕝𝕝𝕚𝕤’ 𝔸𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕖𝕣𝕚𝕥𝕪 𝔸𝕩𝕖 𝔹𝕖𝕥𝕣𝕒𝕪𝕤 𝕎𝕠𝕞𝕖𝕟, 𝕊𝕥𝕒𝕣𝕧𝕖𝕤 𝕊𝕖𝕣𝕧𝕚𝕔𝕖𝕤, 𝕒𝕟𝕕 𝔾𝕒𝕞𝕓𝕝𝕖𝕤 ℕℤ’𝕤 𝔽𝕦𝕥𝕦𝕣𝕖

𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕡𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕨𝕒𝕪 𝕗𝕠𝕣 𝕒 𝕔𝕒𝕡𝕚𝕥𝕒𝕝 𝕘𝕒𝕚𝕟𝕤 𝕠𝕣 𝕨𝕖𝕒𝕝𝕥𝕙 𝕥𝕒𝕩

𝕋𝕣𝕚𝕔𝕠𝕝𝕒 𝕎𝕚𝕝𝕝𝕚𝕤 𝕤𝕒𝕪𝕤 ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕨𝕒𝕤𝕟'𝕥 𝕒𝕨𝕒𝕣𝕖 𝕥𝕒𝕩 𝕔𝕙𝕒𝕟𝕘𝕖𝕤 𝕨𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕦𝕝𝕥 𝕚𝕟 𝟡𝟘𝟘𝟘 𝕖𝕒𝕣𝕟𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕝𝕖𝕤𝕤 𝕚𝕟𝕔𝕠𝕞𝕖

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Reverting to the 2009 net debt definition (excluding NZ Super Fund assets) is a cynical ploy to hide the carnage. 

This borrowing binge bankrolls tax cuts, including income tax relief and landlord interest rebates, costing $21 billion over four years—a shameless giveaway to the wealthy elite. 

National’s borrowing outstrips Labour’s projections by $17 billion; official data confirms a $12 billion surge, still a grotesque betrayal of fiscal sanity. 

Labour’s borrowing, while hefty, was forged in crisis. Net core Crown debt climbed from 21.6% of GDP in 2017 to 38.45% by 2023, driven by the $50 billion COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund and a $12.1 billion initial package to save jobs and businesses during a global meltdown. 

Their 2023 Budget projected $120 billion in bonds over four years, plus $20 billion for cyclone recovery—tough but necessary calls, unlike National’s grotesque handout to the rich. Spending National’s spending is a middle finger to ordinary Kiwis, with core Crown expenditure at 33.5% of GDP in 2024–25, eclipsing Labour’s 33.0% in 2023.

Finance minister Nicola Willis attempts to explain why she is so addicted to spending. file: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢. courtesy TV1 Q&A 

Their paltry $3.2 billion operating allowance is a cruel facade, masking a $21 billion tax cut bonanza for landlords and high earners, alongside spending on transport, infrastructure, and Cyclone Gabrielle recovery. 

These cuts have gutted the tax base, forcing heartless slashes to school lunch programs and public transport subsidies, leaving kids and commuters to rot. 

Finance costs for 2023–24 hit $8.8 billion, more than defense, police, corrections, and customs combined—a damning monument to National’s debt-fueled idiocy. 

Labour’s $139 billion in 2023–24 spending, up $11.4 billion, poured into health (scrapping $5 prescription fees), free early childhood education, and public transport subsidies, tackling cost-of-living pain and rebuilding post-COVID. 

It was big but grounded in reality, not National’s fantasy of trickle-down economics. 

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Related:

ℂ𝕒𝕟 𝕃𝕖𝕗𝕥-𝕎𝕚𝕟𝕘 ℙ𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕔𝕚𝕡𝕝𝕖𝕤 𝔸𝕝𝕠𝕟𝕖 𝕊𝕒𝕧𝕖 𝕆𝕦𝕣 ℂ𝕣𝕦𝕞𝕓𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕎𝕠𝕣𝕝𝕕?

ℂ𝕒𝕝𝕝 𝕗𝕠𝕣 𝕄ℙ𝕤 𝕥𝕠 𝕔𝕦𝕥 𝕕𝕠𝕨𝕟 𝕠𝕟 𝕤𝕡𝕖𝕟𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕒𝕤 𝕖𝕩𝕡𝕖𝕟𝕤𝕖𝕤 𝕣𝕖𝕧𝕖𝕒𝕝𝕖𝕕

𝔽𝕚𝕟𝕒𝕟𝕔𝕖 𝕄𝕚𝕟𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕖𝕣 𝕋𝕣𝕚𝕔𝕠𝕝𝕒 𝕎𝕚𝕝𝕝𝕚𝕤 𝕒𝕔𝕔𝕦𝕤𝕖𝕕 𝕠𝕗 '𝕝𝕖𝕥 𝕥𝕙𝕖𝕞 𝕖𝕒𝕥 𝕔𝕒𝕜𝕖' 𝕒𝕡𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕒𝕔𝕙

𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕕𝕖𝕣 ℂ𝕙𝕣𝕚𝕤 ℍ𝕚𝕡𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕤 𝕤𝕝𝕒𝕞𝕤 ℂ𝕙𝕣𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕠𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕣 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟'𝕤 $𝟝𝟟𝕜 𝕠𝕗𝕗𝕚𝕔𝕖 𝕣𝕖𝕗𝕦𝕣𝕓 𝕕𝕦𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕞𝕒𝕤𝕤 𝕔𝕠𝕤𝕥-𝕔𝕦𝕥𝕥𝕚𝕟𝕘

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Conclusion 

National’s borrowing (42.5% of GDP vs. Labour’s 38.45%) and spending (33.5% vs. 33.0%) dwarf Labour’s, despite their sanctimonious fiscal prudence charade. 

By torching $21 billion of the tax base on tax cuts for the rich, National has ignited a debt crisis, screwed over vulnerable Kiwis, and sold out the nation’s future for a handful of wealthy mates. Shame on them.

𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

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