ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝 𝔸𝕟𝕒𝕝𝕪𝕤𝕚𝕤: 𝕍𝕠𝕥𝕖𝕣𝕤 𝕞𝕒𝕪 𝕓𝕖 𝕤𝕙𝕚𝕗𝕥𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕥𝕠 𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣

ℕ𝕖𝕨 ℤ𝕖𝕒𝕝𝕒𝕟𝕕 𝔽𝕚𝕣𝕤𝕥 𝕣𝕚𝕤𝕖𝕤 𝕥𝕠 𝟡%, 𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕥𝕒𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝔸ℂ𝕋. ℝ𝕚𝕘𝕙𝕥 𝕓𝕝𝕠𝕔 (𝟞𝟛 𝕤𝕖𝕒𝕥𝕤) 𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕕𝕤 𝕝𝕖𝕗𝕥 (𝟝𝟠 𝕤𝕖𝕒𝕥𝕤). 𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕘𝕒𝕚𝕟𝕤, 𝔾𝕣𝕖𝕖𝕟𝕤 𝕝𝕠𝕤𝕖. 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟’𝕤 𝕡𝕠𝕡𝕦𝕝𝕒𝕣𝕚𝕥𝕪 𝕕𝕚𝕡𝕤; 𝕦𝕟𝕕𝕖𝕔𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕕 𝕧𝕠𝕥𝕖𝕣𝕤 𝕒𝕥 𝟙𝟚%.

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he latest TV1/Verian poll (August 2-6), surveying 1002 eligible New Zealand voters, reveals a dynamic political landscape with significant shifts in party support, coalition prospects, and leadership preferences. 

The right bloc—National (34%, 42 seats), ACT (8%, 10 seats), and New Zealand First (9%, 11 seats)—secures 63 seats, enough to form a government, consistent with June’s results.

Courtesy: 1News

The left bloc—Labour (33%, 40 seats), Greens (10%, 12 seats), and Te Pāti Māori (4%, 6 seats)—falls short with 58 seats, highlighting coalition challenges. 

A 12% undecided voter rate (up 1%) signals growing uncertainty ahead of the 2026 election.

New Zealand First’s rise to 9%, its strongest since August 2017, sees it overtake ACT as the fourth largest party, gaining 3 seats. 

This momentum, driven by leader Winston Peters’ appeal (up 1% to 7% in preferred Prime Minister stakes), positions NZ First as a coalition kingmaker. 

National remains steady but loses 7 seats, reflecting vulnerability despite a loyal base. 

Labour’s 4% gain to 33% (up 6 seats) narrows the gap with National, fueled by Chris Hipkins’ focus on jobs, health, homes, and cost-of-living issues.

File: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

Hipkins, steady at 19% in leadership preference, trails National’s Christopher Luxon (down 3% to 20%, his lowest since August 2023) but capitalises on voter dissatisfaction with National’s record.

The Greens, down 2% to 10% (losing 2 seats), face challenges as progressive voters may be shifting to Labour. 

ACT’s steady 8% (down 1 seat) suggests a plateau, limiting its influence compared to NZ First’s surge. 

Te Pāti Māori’s unchanged 4% (6 seats, assuming electorate holds and an overhang in a 121-seat Parliament) maintains its niche but lacks broader impact. 

The leadership race sees Chlöe Swarbrick (Greens) drop to 4%, mirroring her party’s decline, while David Seymour (ACT) holds at 4%.

Courtesy: 1News

Minor figures like Jacinda Ardern, Shane Jones, and others register at 1%, reflecting diverse voter sentiment.

Luxon’s response to his declining popularity emphasises economic fixes and a “long-term plan,” deflecting poll concerns. 

Hipkins, optimistic about Labour’s gains, critiques National’s failures, positioning Labour as a proactive alternative.

Voter trend - 1News/Verian specific. File: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢 

The 12% undecided voters represent a critical wildcard, potentially swayed by economic or policy developments. 

NZ First’s resurgence strengthens the right bloc’s cohesion, but National’s seat loss underscores reliance on coalition partners. 

The left bloc, despite Labour’s gains, is hampered by the Greens’ losses and Te Pāti Māori’s limited growth.

This poll highlights a competitive race, with Labour closing in on National and NZ First emerging as a pivotal force. 

Leadership perceptions, particularly Luxon’s dip and Peters’ rise, will shape coalition dynamics. 

The undecided voter pool and ongoing economic challenges will likely influence future polls, making the 2026 election a closely contested battleground where strategic campaigning and coalition negotiations will be decisive.

𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

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