Poll Twist: National Edges Labour, Coalition Clings to Power

𝘓𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴𝘵 1𝘕𝘦𝘸𝘴-𝘝𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘭: 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘥𝘨𝘦𝘴 𝘓𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘳 (36-35%); 𝘤𝘰𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 67-𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘫𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘌𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤 𝘰𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘮 𝘶𝘱; 𝘎𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘯𝘴/𝘛𝘗𝘔 𝘱𝘭𝘶𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘵, 𝘭𝘦𝘧𝘵 𝘣𝘭𝘰𝘤 𝘸𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘯𝘴.

Published By Bruce Alpine: 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀.

T

he latest 1News-Verian poll, conducted in early December via mobile and online panels, reveals a tightening New Zealand election race. 

The centre-right coalition (National, ACT, NZ First) holds a majority path, buoyed by economic optimism amid expected GDP growth. 

Fieldwork aligns with Verian's quarterly cadence, surveying voters with a ~±3% margin of error.

Party Vote Shares 

Excluding 10% undecideds, major parties gain while smaller left-leaning ones falter.

Credit: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

Right bloc: 55% (National + ACT + NZF). Left bloc: 43% (Labour + Greens + TPM). Undecideds could swing outcomes. 

Projected MMP Seats 

120 total seats (72 electorate + 48 list). Coalition secures 67 (National: 44, ACT: 12, NZ First: 11)—above 61 majority threshold. 

Credit: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

Leadership Ratings

Credit: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

Economic Sentiment 

Bright spot for government: Optimism rises 6% to 42% (highest since mid-2024), pessimism falls 9% to 30%. Ties to anticipated positive Q3 GDP post-contraction, countering austerity critiques. 

Voter trend, TV!/Verian specific. credit: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

Trends & Implications 

Coalition's edge grows via National/ACT gains, quelling Luxon instability rumors—Bishop's rise hints at internal depth. Labour surges but left fractures (Greens/TPM drops) hinder unity, echoing 2023 vote splits. Volatility looms with 10% undecideds and GDP release; Verian has undercalled minors historically (e.g., NZ First 2017). Overall, a "hold" for the right into 2026, but economic slips could empower opposition consolidation. Poll underscores polarized MMP dynamics: stability vs. momentum.

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