Has Trump landed a dud with his Venezuelan oil play?

𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱'𝘴 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘔𝘢𝘥𝘶𝘳𝘰 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘜𝘚 𝘴𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘵𝘺 𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘴, 𝘦𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘪𝘭-𝘥𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘎𝘶𝘭𝘧 𝘞𝘢𝘳. 𝘏𝘦 𝘣𝘰𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘝𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘻𝘶𝘦𝘭𝘢'𝘴 30-50𝘔 𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘥𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘨𝘭𝘰𝘣𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘜𝘚 𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯.

Analysis: Ian Verrender, ABC.

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here's been uproar and condemnation aplenty over America's sudden assault on the once enshrined concept of national sovereignty, overthrowing eight decades of rigidly enforced global order. 

Almost 35 years ago, George Bush Senior ordered US troops to lead a 42-nation strong United Nations force into Kuwait to defend the gulf state against an invasion by Saddam Hussein's Iraq. 

Ostensibly, the first Gulf War was all about protecting the concept of national sovereignty. 

In reality, it was all about oil. Last weekend, Donald Trump jettisoned that lofty ideal, justifying the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife on the grounds that Venezuela and its leadership posed an existential threat to US security. 

While debate rages over the legality and the potential fallout from America's incursion there's been a quiet acceptance that, once again, it was all about oil. 

The US president has done little to persuade anyone otherwise.  

In addition to waxing lyrical over his brilliantly executed military operation, he's boasted about the riches that he expects to flow from the Latin American country, money that he will personally control. 

Venezuela's interim leaders would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil, he announced on Wednesday our time via social media, which the US would sell at market rates instead of the heavily discounted rate it has been offloading its energy. 

A person flutters a national flag in Caracas on January 3, 2026, after US forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Photo: AFP / FEDERICO PARRA
 

"And that money will be controlled by me, as president of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!" he said. 

The not-so-subtle subtext is clear. America will become the global energy powerhouse. 

It's already the world's biggest oil producer, and by pulling Venezuelan oil into its orbit it will be able to control global energy prices.

But scratch just a little beneath the surface of all the bluster and it becomes apparent that Trump's play for Venezuela's oil riches may not be all it's cracked up to be. 

 He may have just landed a dud.

RNZ/ABC

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