𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕤𝕥𝕚𝕝𝕝 𝕨𝕖𝕝𝕝 𝕒𝕙𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕚𝕟 𝕝𝕒𝕥𝕖𝕤𝕥 𝕡𝕠𝕝𝕝

𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕚𝕤 𝕤𝕥𝕚𝕝𝕝 𝕗𝕒𝕣 𝕒𝕙𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕠𝕗 ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕚𝕟 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕝𝕒𝕥𝕖𝕤𝕥 𝟙 ℕ𝕖𝕨𝕤-ℂ𝕠𝕝𝕞𝕒𝕣 𝔹𝕣𝕦𝕟𝕥𝕠𝕟 ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝, 𝕒𝕝𝕥𝕙𝕠𝕦𝕘𝕙 𝕚𝕥’𝕤 𝕝𝕠𝕤𝕥 𝕤𝕠𝕞𝕖 𝕤𝕦𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕣𝕥, 𝕨𝕙𝕚𝕝𝕖 ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕙𝕒𝕤 𝕡𝕠𝕤𝕥𝕖𝕕 𝕤𝕠𝕞𝕖 𝕤𝕞𝕒𝕝𝕝 𝕘𝕒𝕚𝕟𝕤.

Labour is on 46 per cent in the poll, dropping three points on the last poll, taken in March. National is on 29 per cent, up 2 points from the last poll.

ACT is on 9 per cent, up 1 point, while the Greens are on 8 per cent, dropping 1, and Te Pāti Māori holds its support at 2 per cent.

Translated to seats in Parliament, Labour would have 59, losing its outright majority, while National would have 36 seats. 

ACT would have 12 seats, the Greens 11, Te Pāti Māori would have 2, assuming Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

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The poll is the first to be taken since the Budget was delivered a week ago.

It’s also the first 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll to be taken since the National Party began its attack on the He Puapua report, drawing comparison’s with former leader Don Brash’s 2004 Orewa Speech.

It was the 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll after that speech, which first suggested that Brash’s rhetoric was having a positive effect on polling, lifting National 17 points, but it also badly damaged the party’s relationship with Māori.

It appears Collins’ attacks on He Puapua weren’t able to replicate Brash’s success in the polls.

Collins has also seen a dent to her approval rating, which is -19.

Thirty per cent of people approved of the way Collins was handling her job as leader of the National Party, while 49% disapproved – giving her an approval rating of -19.

Neck and Neck really. pic.twitter.com/T8E9L6S5sr

— Christopher Bishflap (@bishflap) May 28, 2021

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It’s the third 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll since the election. The first, taken in November, had Labour on 53, National on 25, with the Greens and ACT on 8 points each and Te Pāti Māori on 1.2.

Another recent poll, from Newshub Reid-Research, taken earlier this month had Labour on 52.7, National on 27, the Greens on 7.1 and ACT on 6.9.

The maximum sampling error for the poll is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For party support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers.

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