ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝: ℂ𝕠𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 ℂ𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘𝕤 𝕥𝕠 ℙ𝕠𝕨𝕖𝕣 𝕒𝕤 𝔸𝕡𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕧𝕒𝕝𝕤 ℙ𝕝𝕦𝕟𝕘𝕖

𝕋𝕍𝟙/𝕍𝕖𝕣𝕚𝕒𝕟 𝕡𝕠𝕝𝕝 𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕓𝕝𝕖: ℂ𝕠𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕔𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘𝕤 𝕥𝕠 𝕞𝕒𝕛𝕠𝕣𝕚𝕥𝕪; 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟/ℍ𝕚𝕡𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕤 𝕒𝕡𝕡𝕣𝕠𝕧𝕒𝕝𝕤 𝕥𝕒𝕟𝕜 𝕒𝕞𝕚𝕕 𝕣𝕚𝕤𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕖𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕠𝕞𝕚𝕔 𝕡𝕖𝕤𝕤𝕚𝕞𝕚𝕤𝕞.

𝗧

he latest 1News-Verian poll, conducted from October 4 to 8, surveyed 1,014 eligible voters in New Zealand (a mix of mobile phone random dialing and online panels). 

It has a margin of error of about ±3.1% at the 95% confidence level. 

The results show relatively stable party support, with the governing right-leaning coalition (National, ACT, New Zealand First) maintaining a slim majority in projected seats. 

However, approval ratings for both major party leaders—Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Opposition Leader Chris Hipkins—have declined sharply since earlier 2025 polls, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid economic challenges like a recent GDP contraction. 

Party Support Party support remains largely unchanged from the August poll, with minor shifts. 

National and Labour are neck-and-neck as the largest parties, while smaller parties like the Greens and New Zealand First hold steady. Here's a breakdown:

File: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

This stability suggests voter sentiment isn't shifting dramatically toward either bloc, despite ongoing policy debates. 

Projected Seats in Parliament Based on the poll's support levels and New Zealand's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system (123 seats total, including a potential 3-seat overhang for Te Pāti Māori), the right bloc would secure 63 seats—enough for a majority government. 

The left bloc (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) would have 60 seats, up slightly from the prior poll but still short.

File: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

The coalition's hold on power looks secure under current conditions, but National's seat loss highlights reliance on its partners (ACT and New Zealand First) to govern. 

Leader Approval Ratings Both leaders saw net approval drops, with Luxon's falling to his lowest as PM. 

Approvals are calculated as approves minus disapproves.

File: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

Luxon's disapproval is highest among women under 50 and non-National voters, while Hipkins fares better with Labour supporters and university graduates. 

These declines coincide with economic headwinds, potentially eroding trust in leadership. 

Preferred Prime Minister Luxon edges out Hipkins, but neither commands strong support. Winston Peters (New Zealand First) remains a notable alternative.

File: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

Swarbrick's rise underscores appeal among progressive voters, while former PM Ardern's lingering 1% shows her enduring name recognition. 

Other Key Metrics 

•  Economic Outlook: Only 36% of respondents are optimistic about the economy (steady from August), but pessimism surged to 39% (up from 21%), likely tied to the 0.9% GDP shrinkage reported in the June 2025 quarter. 

• No direct government performance ratings were detailed, but the poll's timing follows debates on fiscal policy and cost-of-living pressures. 

 Key Analysis and Implications This poll paints a picture of political stagnation: party support is "mired in disapproval" yet unchanged, allowing the Luxon-led coalition to hold steady despite internal tensions (e.g., National's reliance on coalition partners). 

File: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

The sharp drops in leader approvals—Luxon's net -14 is his worst—signal broader frustration, particularly on economic management, where pessimism has doubled since spring. 

Hipkins' slide from a strong +16 to +1 suggests Labour's opposition role isn't resonating as hoped, though their seat gains indicate potential if momentum builds. 

For the coalition, stability is a win, but Luxon's "lost touch" perception (echoed in prior polls) could amplify if economic recovery stalls. 

The left bloc's near-parity (60 seats) keeps the door open for an upset, especially if Te Pāti Māori's overhang plays out. 

Overall, with the next election still years away, this snapshot highlights a polarized, uninspired electorate—voters approve of neither side's direction but aren't ready to switch. 

Reactions from leaders were dismissive: Luxon emphasized his "team," while Hipkins framed it as typical opposition fatigue.

𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

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