𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟’𝕤 𝕖𝕡𝕚𝕔 𝕦𝕟𝕡𝕠𝕡𝕦𝕝𝕒𝕣𝕚𝕥𝕪 𝕚𝕟 𝕠𝕟𝕖 𝕔𝕙𝕒𝕣𝕥

ℂ𝕠𝕞𝕡𝕒𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕔𝕦𝕣𝕣𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕡𝕣𝕚𝕞𝕖 𝕞𝕚𝕟𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕖𝕣’𝕤 𝕟𝕖𝕥 𝕗𝕒𝕧𝕠𝕦𝕣𝕒𝕓𝕚𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕪 𝕥𝕠 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕗𝕚𝕣𝕤𝕥 𝕥𝕖𝕣𝕞𝕤 𝕠𝕗 ℍ𝕖𝕝𝕖𝕟 ℂ𝕝𝕒𝕣𝕜, 𝕁𝕠𝕙𝕟 𝕂𝕖𝕪 𝕒𝕟𝕕 𝕁𝕒𝕔𝕚𝕟𝕕𝕒 𝔸𝕣𝕕𝕖𝕣𝕟 𝕤𝕙𝕠𝕨𝕤 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕖𝕩𝕥𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕥𝕠 𝕨𝕙𝕚𝕔𝕙 𝕟𝕖𝕨 𝕕𝕖𝕡𝕥𝕙𝕤 𝕒𝕣𝕖 𝕓𝕖𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕡𝕝𝕦𝕞𝕓𝕖𝕕.

E

veryone knows Christopher Luxon is unpopular. National’s polling is poor, and his preferred prime minister rating is now below that of his opposite number, Chris Hipkins, despite the latter’s deliberate strategy of being largely invisible for the last 18 months. 

There is even talk – although no more than that – of a challenge to Luxon’s leadership. 

 The extent of the PM’s unpopularity, however, has never been more clearly revealed than in the graph below, supplied to The Spinoff by polling firm Talbot Mills Research. 

It charts the net favourability – the percentage of voters who have a favourable impression of the prime minister, minus the percentage who have an unfavourable one – of our last four leaders during their initial term in government, from Talbot Mills/UMR polling over the years. 

While Helen Clark, John Key and Jacinda Ardern were mountaineers scaling the peaks, Luxon is plumbing new depths.

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Related:

𝔸𝕟𝕒𝕝𝕪𝕤𝕚𝕤: ℂ𝕠𝕞𝕡𝕒𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟'𝕤 𝕀𝕟𝕧𝕖𝕤𝕥𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕊𝕦𝕞𝕞𝕚𝕥 𝕨𝕚𝕥𝕙 𝕁𝕠𝕙𝕟 𝕂𝕖𝕪'𝕤 𝕁𝕠𝕓 𝕊𝕦𝕞𝕞𝕚𝕥

ℂ𝕙𝕣𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕠𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕣 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟 𝕤𝕥𝕣𝕦𝕘𝕘𝕝𝕖𝕤 𝕒𝕤 𝕔𝕠𝕤𝕥-𝕠𝕗-𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕘𝕝𝕠𝕠𝕞 𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘𝕖𝕣𝕤

𝔸𝕟𝕒𝕝𝕪𝕤𝕚𝕤: ℍ𝕠𝕨 𝕂𝕚𝕨𝕚𝕤 𝕒𝕣𝕖 𝕗𝕖𝕖𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕥 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕡𝕖𝕣𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕞𝕒𝕟𝕔𝕖 𝕚𝕟 𝔸𝕠𝕥𝕖𝕒𝕣𝕠𝕒

𝔸𝕟𝕠𝕥𝕙𝕖𝕣 ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝 𝕡𝕝𝕒𝕔𝕖𝕤 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕠𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕤𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕒𝕙𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕠𝕗 𝕥𝕙𝕖 ℂ𝕠𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕘𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥

𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟 𝕤𝕙𝕠𝕨𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕝𝕒𝕔𝕜 𝕠𝕗 𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕕𝕖𝕣𝕤𝕙𝕚𝕡 𝕒𝕘𝕒𝕚𝕟𝕤𝕥 ℙ𝕖𝕥𝕖𝕣𝕤 𝕒𝕟𝕥𝕚-𝕞𝕚𝕘𝕣𝕒𝕟𝕥 𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕟𝕔𝕖.

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Every leader has their challenges, of course. 

Clark’s popularity dropped away in her first year, owing perhaps to the business revolt sometimes dubbed the “winter of discontent”, before recovering strongly. 

Ardern’s rating fell spectacularly amidst the failure to deliver the much-touted “year of delivery”, her status rescued only by a successful response to the pandemic’s initial onslaught. 

Even Key, largely serene, had a mid-term dip. Still, the paths of those three leaders could not be further from the one Luxon is treading: he started out unpopular, and has only become more so over time. 

 Everyone has their own theory as to why this is, but one common thread in the criticism is Luxon’s inability to articulate clearly what he stands for or what, at its best, this country could be. 

This leaves voters unmoved, their emotions detached from the prime minister and his prospects. 

As Duncan Garner recently pointed out, in a column predicting Luxon would be rolled before the next election, previous leaders have always had at least one group of hardcore fans. 

Lamo Luxo! https://t.co/dhAb7nyaNx

— Laurie #kiwi-nan (@Kiwimum55) March 17, 2025

“Luxon can point to no such base of support,” Garner wrote, “even among the business community who must surely be wondering when [he] is actually going to do something.” 

 The point is borne out by new data from the Acumen Edelman Trust Barometer, which shows high-income Kiwis dramatically losing faith in the coalition. (Their low-income counterparts remain stubbornly distrustful of all governments.) 

This decline in trust appears to be evenly split between left-wing and right-wing elites, suggesting the latter are indeed disappointed with Luxon’s performance. 

While one can only speculate as to their reasons, they may include a distaste for the culture wars that the prime minister is allowing his coalition partners to pursue, a sense that his government has few real solutions to New Zealand’s long-term productivity problems, and the above-mentioned absence of vision.

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Additional Reading:

ℚ𝕦𝕖𝕤𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕤 𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣 ℕ𝕚𝕔𝕠𝕝𝕖 𝕄𝕔𝕂𝕖𝕖'𝕤 𝕗𝕚𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕣𝕞𝕤 𝕒𝕕𝕧𝕚𝕔𝕖

𝕄𝕚𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕒𝕣𝕪 𝕤𝕥𝕪𝕝𝕖 𝕨𝕖𝕒𝕡𝕠𝕟𝕤 𝕨𝕚𝕝𝕝 𝕣𝕖𝕞𝕒𝕚𝕟 𝕓𝕒𝕟𝕟𝕖𝕕

𝕁𝕒𝕔𝕚𝕟𝕕𝕒 𝔸𝕣𝕕𝕖𝕣𝕟 𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕖𝕚𝕧𝕖𝕤 𝕠𝕟𝕖 𝕠𝕗 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕙𝕚𝕘𝕙𝕖𝕤𝕥 𝕒𝕔𝕔𝕠𝕝𝕒𝕕𝕖𝕤

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All leaders, of course, eventually lose their shine. Some commentators perpetuated the myth of Key’s “incredible” popularity, but by the time of his resignation he had ended where Luxon began, at net zero, his detractors just as numerous as his supporters. 

The flag referendum debacle, the bizarre ponytail-pulling incident, the fact that leadership strengths inevitably turn to weaknesses: all these factors, and more, eroded his public favourability. 

Only the perceived unpalatability of his opponents, Phil Goff and David Shearer among them, propped up his preferred prime minister rankings. 

 Clark, supposedly less charismatic than Key, in fact stayed popular for longer than her successor did. 

But even she was near net zero by the end of her prime ministership. 

 Luxon’s defence, if there is one, is that the process of popularity decline is being hastened worldwide by an increasingly disgruntled, restive and febrile electorate. 

Britain’s Keir Starmer has barely got his feet under the table but already suffers catastrophically bad ratings. 

Across the ditch, Anthony Albanese could be about to lead the first one-term Australian government in a century.

𝒯𝒽𝑒 𝒮𝓅𝒾𝓃𝑜𝒻𝒻

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