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The New Zealand government's unprecedented low rating of 4.2 out of 10 in the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey, conducted from February 24 to March 2, 2025, signals a deepening public discontent.
This score, the lowest since Ipsos began tracking in mid-2017, represents a statistically significant decline from 4.7 in October 2024, with 41% of respondents assigning a rating of 3 or below.
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This slump under the National-led coalition, headed by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, suggests a complex mix of economic, social, and political factors eroding public confidence, even as some traditional pressure points show signs of easing.
Economically, there are glimmers of improvement that might have been expected to bolster the government’s standing. Concern over inflation and the cost of living, while still the top issue at 50%, dropped five points from the previous survey—the lowest in three years.
This aligns with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 50-basis-point cut to the official cash rate in February 2025, bringing it to 3.75%, and a consumer price index stabilized at 2.2% within the target band.
These moves have arguably softened immediate financial strain for households.
Yet, this relief hasn’t translated into approval. Instead, the economy itself climbed to the third-biggest concern at 30%, up from lower rankings, possibly reflecting broader anxieties tied to global uncertainties—such as potential trade disruptions under a new U.S. administration following Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.
National retains a lead over Labour in managing inflation, the economy, and crime, but this advantage is shrinking, hinting at waning faith in the coalition’s economic stewardship.
Social issues further complicate the picture. Health remains a persistent worry, holding steady at 41% as the second-biggest concern, particularly among older demographics who may feel neglected by healthcare policy or delivery.
Housing, now at 27%, has overtaken crime (down to 25% from third place) as the fourth-biggest issue, underscoring ongoing affordability and availability challenges that the government has yet to convincingly address.
Labour is gaining ground on these social fronts, narrowing National’s lead and appealing to voters frustrated by perceived inaction or misalignment with their priorities.
Politically, the survey’s timing—following heated February 2025 debates over the Treaty of Waitangi and ethnicity—may have amplified dissatisfaction.
These discussions, often polarizing, could have deepened perceptions of a government struggling to unify or inspire.
The Ipsos poll, based on a sample of 1002 adults with a ±3.5% margin of error, captures a moment where policy successes, like reduced inflation, are overshadowed by broader unease.
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For instance, despite crime dropping in priority, public trust in the government’s handling of it remains tepid, with National’s edge over Labour softening.
This disconnect suggests a coalition failing to convert tangible gains into political capital.
Luxon’s administration faces a pivotal challenge: addressing not just the issues—health, housing, economic stability—but the narrative around them.
With public sentiment souring, the government must recalibrate to restore confidence, or risk further erosion as 2025 unfolds.
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