𝕎𝕚𝕥𝕙𝕠𝕦𝕥 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟, ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 ℝ𝕚𝕤𝕜𝕤 𝕌𝕟𝕡𝕠𝕡𝕦𝕝𝕒𝕣 𝕃𝕖𝕒𝕕𝕖𝕣𝕤, 𝕆𝕟𝕘𝕠𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕀𝕟𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕓𝕚𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕪

ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 ℙ𝕒𝕣𝕥𝕪 ℝ𝕚𝕤𝕜𝕤 ℝ𝕖𝕡𝕖𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝟚𝟘𝟙𝟟-𝟚𝟙 𝕃𝕖𝕒𝕕𝕖𝕣𝕤𝕙𝕚𝕡 𝕎𝕠𝕖𝕤 𝕒𝕤 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟'𝕤 𝕌𝕟𝕡𝕠𝕡𝕦𝕝𝕒𝕣𝕚𝕥𝕪 ℙ𝕖𝕣𝕤𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕤, 𝕋𝕙𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕥𝕖𝕟𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝔻𝕚𝕤𝕔𝕚𝕡𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕖 𝕚𝕗 ℍ𝕖 𝔻𝕖𝕡𝕒𝕣𝕥𝕤.

𝗖

hristopher Luxon's chances of leading the National Party into next year's election appear to be fading, as each new opinion poll shows a further drop in his already low popularity as the party's leader. 

 Party officials can no longer say that voters just need to get to know Luxon, as the more familiar they become with him, the less they like him. 

If Luxon departs, a trend of divisive leadership could persist, driven by internal factionalism, voter dissatisfaction, and coalition pressures. 

During 2017-2021, National cycled through Bill English, Simon Bridges, Todd Muller, and Judith Collins as leaders, each grappling with poor public likability and internal discord. 

Luxon's exit could trigger another phase of turmoil for the National Party. 

English departed after losing the 2017 election and low likability polling, Bridges was rolled due to dismal polling, Muller resigned after 53 days citing mental health and caucus tensions, and Collins’ abrasive style failed to unify the party or win voter trust, leading to a crushing 2020 election loss. 

Luxon’s 2021 rise brought stability and a 2023 victory, but his persistent un-likability—evident in polls showing his net favourability dropping to as low as -7% and preferred prime minister ratings at 20.3% in early 2025—echoes the same public disconnect seen in his predecessors. 

Critical sentiment, describing Luxon as “wooden,” “insincere,” and lacking the charisma of past leaders like John Key, reinforcing the view that his struggles are a continuation of the 2017-2021 era’s leadership woes. 

Current polls underscore this trend. 

National’s support has slipped to the low 30s, with Labour overtaking in some surveys, projecting a hung parliament in 2026.

If New Zealand’s business sector loses faith in Luxon or the National-led coalition government, it could doom the National Party in the 2026 election. 

The Post of August 17 reports growing business dissatisfaction with Luxon’s leadership. 

Luxon’s leadership is criticised for lacking vision and relatability, with business leaders and commentators noting his inability to connect beyond a corporate niche. 

Coalition tensions with ACT and New Zealand First, particularly over divisive issues like the Treaty Principles Bill, further strain party discipline, mirroring the factional rifts of 2017-2021. 

These dynamics suggest Luxon’s unpopularity is not an anomaly but part of a broader pattern of leadership challenges.

If Luxon departs, potential successors—Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Erica Stanford, or Mark Mitchell—may struggle to break this cycle. 

Good Grief!! As if the lazy, lily-livered Luxon wasn't bad enough - this Economic Miss Management would be even worse!! https://t.co/R8eCN1Oaww

— Veronica Glamis Aotearoa💃💃💃💃 (@VeronicaGlamis) August 19, 2025

Willis and Bishop, both liberal-leaning, risk alienating National’s conservative base, much like Muller’s brief tenure failed to bridge ideological divides. 

Stanford’s fresh appeal could falter without proven leadership experience, echoing Muller’s rapid exit. 

Mitchell’s conservative credentials might resonate with traditionalists but could limit broader voter appeal, similar to Collins’ struggles. 

Skepticism exists about National’s bench, with no candidate seen as a clear, unifying figure, suggesting the party could lurch through another series of short-lived, unlikeable leaders unable to enforce discipline. 

Mitigating factors include National’s coalition holding a steady 50-51% in some polls and Luxon’s focus on economic delivery, which could stabilise his position if results improve by 2026.  

However, without a charismatic, broadly appealing leader, the party risks repeating the 2017-2021 pattern of instability.  

Persistent factionalism, coalition pressures, and voter frustration with economic issues like cost-of-living could perpetuate a cycle of divisive leadership, undermining National’s electoral prospects if Luxon exits and no successor can unify the party and reconnect with Kiwis.

𝐎𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

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