𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟’𝕤 𝕃𝕠𝕨 ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘 ℂ𝕒𝕤𝕥𝕤 𝕊𝕙𝕒𝕕𝕠𝕨 𝕠𝕟 𝕁𝕠𝕙𝕟 𝕂𝕖𝕪’𝕤 ℂ𝕣𝕖𝕕𝕚𝕓𝕚𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕪

𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟’𝕤 𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕥𝕚𝕟𝕦𝕖𝕕 𝕡𝕠𝕠𝕣 𝕡𝕠𝕝𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕢𝕦𝕖𝕤𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕤 𝕁𝕠𝕙𝕟 𝕂𝕖𝕪’𝕤 𝕛𝕦𝕕𝕘𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥, 𝕨𝕚𝕥𝕙 𝕣𝕚𝕘𝕙𝕥-𝕨𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕔𝕠𝕞𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥𝕒𝕥𝕠𝕣 𝕄𝕒𝕥𝕥𝕙𝕖𝕨 ℍ𝕠𝕠𝕥𝕠𝕟 𝕦𝕟𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕧𝕚𝕟𝕔𝕖𝕕, 𝕙𝕚𝕘𝕙𝕝𝕚𝕘𝕙𝕥𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟’𝕤 𝕤𝕥𝕣𝕦𝕘𝕘𝕝𝕖𝕤 𝕒𝕘𝕒𝕚𝕟𝕤𝕥 𝕂𝕖𝕪’𝕤 𝕝𝕖𝕘𝕒𝕔𝕪 𝕒𝕞𝕚𝕕 𝕒 𝕥𝕠𝕦𝕘𝕙 𝕡𝕠𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕔𝕒𝕝 𝕔𝕝𝕚𝕞𝕒𝕥𝕖.

C

hristopher Luxon, New Zealand's current Prime Minister, has been experiencing notably low polling numbers compared to his predecessors, which has sparked discussions about the credibility of former Prime Minister John Key’s endorsement and legacy. 

Luxon’s net favourability has dipped into negative territory,(-7 1News/Verian poll, April 2025) with recent polls showing him trailing behind Labour leader Chris Hipkins as the preferred PM. 

For instance, a March 2025 Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll had Luxon at 20.3% compared to Hipkins’ 20.7%, a stark contrast to the highs enjoyed by Key, who once boasted a net favourability of +56% early in his tenure. 

This slump has fueled speculation about whether Key’s reputation as a political kingmaker and his ability to judge leadership talent hold as much weight as they once did.

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Additional Reading:

𝔸𝕟𝕒𝕝𝕪𝕤𝕚𝕤: ℂ𝕠𝕞𝕡𝕒𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟'𝕤 𝕀𝕟𝕧𝕖𝕤𝕥𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕊𝕦𝕞𝕞𝕚𝕥 𝕨𝕚𝕥𝕙 𝕁𝕠𝕙𝕟 𝕂𝕖𝕪'𝕤 𝕁𝕠𝕓 𝕊𝕦𝕞𝕞𝕚𝕥

𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟’𝕤 𝕖𝕡𝕚𝕔 𝕦𝕟𝕡𝕠𝕡𝕦𝕝𝕒𝕣𝕚𝕥𝕪 𝕚𝕟 𝕠𝕟𝕖 𝕔𝕙𝕒𝕣𝕥

ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝 𝕡𝕒𝕣𝕥𝕪 𝕡𝕠𝕝𝕚𝕔𝕪 𝕕𝕖𝕥𝕣𝕚𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥𝕒𝕝 𝕥𝕠 ℕ𝕖𝕨 ℤ𝕖𝕒𝕝𝕒𝕟𝕕𝕤 𝕖𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕠𝕞𝕚𝕔 𝕨𝕖𝕝𝕝𝕓𝕖𝕚𝕟𝕘

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John Key, who led National to three terms and was known for his high popularity and economic stewardship, has been a vocal supporter of Luxon, often drawing parallels between their business backgrounds and leadership styles. 

Key has suggested Luxon is "growing into the role" and that his unpopularity might reflect broader economic discontent rather than personal failings. 

Luxon’s low polling has not only sparked debate about John Key’s credibility but also drawn skepticism from prominent right-wing commentator Matthew Hooton, who has openly questioned whether Luxon was the right choice to lead National. 

Hooton, a seasoned political analyst with a history of supporting centre-right causes, has expressed doubts about Luxon’s political instincts and ability to connect with voters, arguing that his corporate CEO polish doesn’t translate into the gritty, relatable leadership needed in today’s fractured landscape. 

Right wing columnist Matthew Hooton is not convinced of Luxons credibility as a PM. file: 𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

In columns and media appearances, Hooton has pointed to Luxon’s inability to capitalise on Labour’s vulnerabilities—despite economic woes and public fatigue with the left—as evidence of a misstep in National’s succession planning. 

He’s suggested that Key’s backing of Luxon might have overlooked a more seasoned or charismatic contender, like Nicola Willis, and that Luxon’s flagging popularity risks dragging the party down in a way Key never did. 

Hooton’s critique adds a layer of internal dissent to the narrative, amplifying concerns about whether Key’s golden touch has lost its shine. 

 However, Luxon’s struggles—marked by a lack of a traditional post-election honeymoon period and missteps like his handling of the Dunedin Hospital downgrade or the ICJ genocide ruling—contrast sharply with Key’s knack for maintaining public appeal even during tough times, such as the Global Financial Crisis. 

Critics argue that Key’s credibility takes a hit if Luxon, his apparent protégé, can’t replicate that success, especially since Key framed Luxon as a capable successor who’d focus on economic turnaround.

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Additional Reading:

ℝℕℤ 𝕥𝕠 𝕣𝕦𝕟 𝕟𝕖𝕨 𝕤𝕖𝕣𝕚𝕖𝕤 𝕠𝕗 𝕡𝕠𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕔𝕒𝕝 𝕡𝕠𝕝𝕝𝕤

ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕝 𝕒𝕟𝕒𝕝𝕪𝕤𝕚𝕤: 𝔾𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕟𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕡𝕖𝕣𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕞𝕒𝕟𝕔𝕖 𝕙𝕚𝕥𝕤 𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕠𝕣𝕕 𝕝𝕠𝕨

𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕧𝕤 ℕ𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕒𝕝: 𝕃𝕒𝕓𝕠𝕦𝕣’𝕤 𝕍𝕚𝕤𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕋𝕣𝕚𝕦𝕞𝕡𝕙𝕤: 𝕎𝕙𝕪 𝕀𝕥’𝕤 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝔹𝕖𝕥𝕥𝕖𝕣 ℂ𝕙𝕠𝕚𝕔𝕖 𝕗𝕠𝕣 ℕ𝕖𝕨 ℤ𝕖𝕒𝕝𝕒𝕟𝕕’𝕤 𝔽𝕦𝕥𝕦𝕣𝕖

𝕋𝕙𝕖 𝕖𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕠𝕞𝕚𝕔 𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕪 𝕤𝕙𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕣𝕥 𝕒𝕥 𝕙𝕠𝕞𝕖

ℂ𝕙𝕣𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕠𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕣 𝕃𝕦𝕩𝕠𝕟 𝕤𝕥𝕣𝕦𝕘𝕘𝕝𝕖𝕤 𝕒𝕤 𝕔𝕠𝕤𝕥-𝕠𝕗-𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕘𝕝𝕠𝕠𝕞 𝕝𝕚𝕟𝕘𝕖𝕣𝕤

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On the flip side, Luxon’s low polling doesn’t necessarily dismantle Key’s legacy. 

Key operated in a different era with a less fragmented electorate and fewer coalition complexities—Luxon’s managing a three-party government, a first under MMP, amid a grinding recession. 

Key’s own popularity waned by his exit in 2016, hitting net zero, suggesting that even his credibility had limits. 

Luxon’s challenges might say more about today’s volatile political climate than Key’s judgment. 

Still, the comparison stings: where Key was a "generational talent" at communication, Luxon’s wooden style and policy delivery have yet to win over Kiwis, raising questions about whether Key overestimated his heir or if he’s simply a victim of tougher times. 

The jury’s still out, but Luxon’s trajectory isn’t doing Key’s aura any favours right now.

𝔅𝔯𝔲𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔩𝔭𝔦𝔫𝔢

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